Sunday at the 2018 Open Championship is going to be wild and nowhere in the ballpark of normal. We can all agree on that, right? After his 6-under 65 on Saturday, 2017 winner Jordan Spieth said he did not want to provide the entertainment he did a year ago at Royal Birkdale when the drama ran thick.

"I'll try and make the round as boring as possible tomorrow," Spieth told Golf Channel. It echoed something he said to Golf Digest recently about that wacky back nine at Birkdale that culminated with one of the great soul-stomps in major championship history.

"I don't know why I can't make it a little more boring sometimes," Spieth said. Spieth wants it, I know, but that doesn't mean you should expect it. Not with his history. Not with this leaderboard. 

And heck, Spieth doesn't even lead by himself going into Round 4. He shares the lead at 9 under with Xander Schauffele and Kevin Kisner. It is, remarkably, the sixth major round Kisner has led or co-led of the last 15 that have been played dating back to the first round of the 2017 PGA Championship. 

So with three golfers tied at the top, instead of putting a player as our pace car, let's set a number. With the leaders at 9 under, a loaded-up board in front of us and potentially some heavy wind rolling in, I think 12 under is good enough to win the 147th Open Championship. 

First, let's take a look at the three golfers leading the field after 54 holes.

Jordan Spieth (-9): He should be (and is) the favorite. Four majors before turning 25. Running down Rory McIlroy in just six years on the PGA Tour. Wins at Augusta National, Royal Birkdale, Chambers Bay and possibly Carnoustie. It's a lot to think about, but consider the names Carnoustie has crowned. The previous seven champions have 35 majors between them. Only one (Paul Lawrie) has fewer than three in his career. The end is easy to see.

Xander Schauffele (-9): He's a middle class man's Spieth. Doesn't do anything spectacularly, but you look up and he's always shuffling right along with the leaders. Also might be a big-game hunter. He has four top 10s this season, and three of them are Riviera, The Players and the U.S. Open. 

Kevin Kisner (-9): Dude is nails. He could have been vaporized on Saturday with this board, but instead he clawed his way to a 3-under 68. Do I think he's going to win on Sunday? I do not, but I wouldn't be all that surprised if he did. It's a bonus for him that the trio at the top is two clear of the field.

Now let's look at who has the best chance of surpassing that trio and taking home the Claret Jug.  

1. Francesco Molinari (-6): He's had quite a month. From pounding Rory McIlroy at the BMW Championship to a touchdown (and two-point conversion) victory lap at the Quicken Loans National. He should want it to blow lustily on Sunday because that ball-striking could win the day.

2. Kevin Chappell (-7): He has one top 10 at a major in the last six years. Good player, but I'm not convinced he's going to take down Spieth at an Open.

3. Rory McIlroy (-5): Saturday was disappointing for him. On a day when the field average was right around 1 under, that's exactly what he shot. However, at some point we're going to see somebody like McIlroy (Justin Thomas, Dustin Johnson, Spieth etc.) shoot a 64 on a Sunday to win a major (we almost saw this this year with Spieth at Augusta). Of the group at 5 under, he certainly has the best shot.

4. Tommy Fleetwood (-5): Considering he shot 63 on Sunday at the U.S. Open at Shinnecock, I'd say it's well within his reach to shoot 64 on Sunday at Carnoustie. It would be the round of his life to win The Open, but it's at least in play.

5. Alex Noren (-5): The Swede shot a 62 last year in the final round of the BMW PGA Championship to win. He won't need quite that this time around, but he'll also likely be playing a much tougher course. 

6. Tiger Woods (-5): I still don't believe, especially from this far back. If Woods was in the lead, I could be talked into it. But Tiger shooting 64 on a Sunday at a wind-whipped Open to get his first win in five years? Yeah, I'm out. The narrative is fun, especially when he's feeling it in the middle of a round, but the reality here is that Tiger is more likely to finish outside the top 20 than he is to win the tournament.

7. Webb Simpson (-5): Point: When he's hot, there might be nobody hotter on the PGA Tour. Counterpoint: He only has two top 10s at majors, and none of them have been at The Open.

8. Zach Johnson (-5): The problem for Johnson on Sunday is going to be that he'll have to ride a heater to his second Claret Jug in four years. He could do it, but the guys above him at 5 under are more capable of doing so.

9. Matt Kuchar (-5): Kuchar couldn't close Spieth up one with five to go last year. And I'm supposed to believe he can do so down four with 18 to go this time around?